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Notre Dame RB Dexter WilliamsPaul Sancya/Associated Press
While most people were counting down the days until Christmas, December 29 is the date college football fans have had their eyes on for months. And at long last, it’s finally here: the College Football Playoff.
Alabama and Clemson were expected to be here since long before the season began. Notre Dame and Oklahoma? Not so much. Will the Fighting Irish or the Sooners keep the dream season going by reaching the national championship game?
Bleacher Report’s college football experts—Matt Hayes, David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Brad Shepard and Ian Wharton—unanimously believe this is the end of the line for both teams, and that yet another Alabama vs. Clemson showdown awaits us on January 7.
Though the picks for winning teams are the same across the board for both the Cotton Bowl and the Orange Bowl, the experts were asked to make predictions on a few more specific details, such as:
- How many points will Clemson score in the Cotton Bowl?
- Will Kyler Murray outgain both Trevor Lawrence and Ian Book?
- Which running back will have the biggest day?
- And which of these teams will be back again next year?
Our experts are on the case.
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Oklahoma kicker/punter Austin SeibertAssociated Press
Matt Hayes (Twitter: @MattHayesCFB)
Three. Alabama may not have to punt. Oklahoma eventually will be forced to refuse to punt. Here’s how it’s going down: The teams will trade blows early on with no punts before the Alabama defense figures out Oklahoma’s offense. The Tide get a couple of stops, keep scoring and force the Sooners into a familiar choice of punting and potentially trailing by more points or trying to convert fourth downs and staying close.
David Kenyon (Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR)
This is an especially inexact science, but somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-7 is reasonable. Oklahoma will probably attempt a few fourth-down conversions and keep the number slightly lower than it would be in a typical regular-season game. (Also, if you’re rooting for a high number here, I’m disappointed in you.)
Adam Kramer (Twitter: @KegsnEggs)
Oh, this has a chance to be a glorious few hours of point mayhem. There is no doubting it. But it’s reasonable to question if it will be the full mayhem based off a) injuries to a handful of key offensive players on each team and b) some serious time off that could slow things down early on.
That said, if you like punts, I would go somewhere else to get your fill. I’ll say we get five total—mainly in the first half—although the scoreboard folks will still need ample caffeine and emotional support to get through this.
Kerry Miller (Twitter: @kerrancejames)
Alabama averages 2.9 punts per game while Oklahoma is sitting around 2.2, which mathematically suggests five punts to be a fair estimate. However, Alabama went back-to-back games without a single punt earlier this season and generally only had multiple punts against above-average defenses—which Oklahoma is not. And Lincoln Riley knows the Sooners need to score on virtually every possession to win this game, so don’t expect him to try to settle into a field-position contest. Put me down for three total punts, each of which comes on 4th-and-8 (or longer) inside the team’s own 30.
Brad Shepard (Twitter: @Brad_Shepard)
I’ll say seven total punts, with five of them coming from Oklahoma. I don’t see the Sooners keeping Alabama off the scoreboard on many possessions. After all, this was the worst defense in a conference that played little of it. When the Crimson Tide are healthy, they’re a better offense than OU, given the defenses each team has played. This is one of those contrasts of styles we all like to see.
Ian Wharton (Twitter: @NFLFilmStudy)
The two teams combined for only 66 punts on the entire year, but I think this game will have more than expected because the level of competition will be so high. I’ll say five punts, with Oklahoma having to do so three times, as the Sooners are playing a much more talented defense than Alabama’s offense is. However, it’s also possible this game gets wild and both teams start going for it on every fourth down.
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Clemson quarterback Trevor LawrenceAssociated Press
Matt Hayes
Let’s go with 31, by Clemson—and that might be too low. For the most part, Notre Dame’s defense has been stout for much of the season against offenses that haven’t been able to press the Irish in both the run and pass games. But Clemson will be a significant upgrade from what the Irish have typically faced. Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence has just one interception in his last 143 throws and has been nearly flawless over the second half of the season.
David Kenyon
While the Orange Bowl should be full of touchdowns, the Cotton Bowl will feature a better-than-good Notre Dame defense and tremendous Clemson unit. I anticipate it’ll be a slow-paced opening half before Clemson puts together a few scoring drives after the break and reaches 31 points.
Adam Kramer
I’ll say 38, and the winning team will be Clemson. This game will actually be touchdown-friendly. Maybe not the same way that Alabama and Oklahoma will score, but it will still be ripe with big moments.
While I love some of the pieces on Notre Dame’s side, Clemson’s balance on offense will be a nightmare to deal with over the full 60 minutes. The Irish stay close, but Tigers running back Travis Etienne will eventually find room, sparking a nice outburst of offense.
Kerry Miller
This game should be the polar opposite of the Orange Bowl, so thank goodness it’s the earlier of the two. I don’t think I could stay awake if we were going from four hours of ALL OF THE POINTS straight into a defensive grind.
Notre Dame has yet to allow more than 27 points in a game this season, and Clemson—despite a couple of subpar defensive showings against Texas A&M and South Carolina—ranks second nationally in scoring defense. I see Clemson winning a 31-20 type of game, and even that might be too optimistic in terms of total points.
Brad Shepard
I like Clemson to win an ugly game, but it won’t ever really be in question. Notre Dame has to get its passing game going, and I don’t foresee the Irish being dominant in either offensive facet of the game. The Tigers simply have more offensive weapons, but this won’t be a game that lends itself to a lot of points. I’ll say Clemson wins with 27.
Ian Wharton
I’ll go with 51 total points, with Clemson scoring 34 of them. The Tigers are much more athletic than the Fighting Irish, and over time, that’ll allow them to create separation on the scoreboard. The health of quarterback Ian Book will be key for the Irish; any re-aggravation of his rib injury would immediately end any chance they have.
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Alabama running back Josh JacobsGregory Shamus/Getty Images
Matt Hayes
Travis Etienne. The only team that has stopped Etienne this season has been Clemson. He has sat out many of the third and/or fourth quarters of games because of blowouts. He would’ve had a monster season—and been part of the Heisman Trophy race—had he received more touches. He has 176 carries this season, well behind national leading rusher Jonathan Taylor (280 carries). But he’ll be the bell cow in the Cotton Bowl.
David Kenyon
Etienne. Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame have stout run defenses. Oklahoma struggles to stop anything, but Alabama can utilize a three-back rotation. So, I’ll lean on volume. Clemson will likely attempt to control the game on the ground and leave Trevor Lawrence in as few high-pressure situations as possible. Not that he can’t handle them, but Etienne is really good.
Adam Kramer
This is going to be Josh Jacobs’ moment. The Alabama running back, who has split carries with Damien Harris and Najee Harris, is going to have a huge game against the Oklahoma defense.
Alabama wants to protect Tua Tagovailoa‘s ankle as much as possible. Alabama wants to keep the ball out of Kyler Murray’s hands. Jacobs can run and catch passes, and against Oklahoma he will do plenty of both—albeit while still sharing the carries. He is special, and he’ll show it here.
Kerry Miller
With Tagovailoa nursing that ankle injury, Alabama figures to run the ball a little more often than usual. The problem, though, is the Crimson Tide split carries so evenly that they have only had two 100-yard rushing performances since Week 2. Both were by Damien Harris, and neither one produced more than 111 yards. Instead, I’ll play it safe and go with Etienne, who has rushed for at least 150 yards six times this season. Notre Dame has a fine run defense, but he’ll find some holes in that front seven.
Brad Shepard
Notre Dame has a strong rush defense, but the Irish haven’t been tested often. They have yet to face an opposing player ranked in the top 15 in rushing yards per game. The only two times they played a team that could run the ball, Wake Forest finished with 259 rushing yards and Navy had 292. This bodes well for Clemson’s rushing attack, and the Tigers will rely heavily on their talented, versatile backfield. Look for Etienne to outrun Notre Dame’s Dexter Williams and finish with a semifinal high of around 130.
Ian Wharton
Alabama’s Najee Harris. It’s tough to choose which Alabama back will have the biggest day, but it would surprise me if one part of the Tide’s three-headed backfield monster doesn’t lead the semifinals in rushing. Oklahoma’s defense is too vulnerable, and it still must account for the powerful Alabama passing offense. I expect Nick Saban to demand his offense impose their physical will on the Sooners defense.
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Clemson defensive end Clelin FerrellGrant Halverson/Getty Images
Matt Hayes
Clelin Ferrell. He’s incredibly tough off the edge and poses significant problems for the Notre Dame pass protection. He has 10.5 sacks this season and is now playing for NFL draft positioning (as well as a national championship). NFL scouts put hefty weight on best vs. best games, and this game (and potentially a title game) could move Ferrell into the top five of the draft.
David Kenyon
One way or another, Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence seems like the choice. As of this writing, a failed drug test is putting his availability in jeopardy. If he doesn’t play, the two easy angles you’ll read afterward are “Clemson thrives/survives without star defensive tackle” or “How much did Lawrence’s absence contribute to the Tigers’ loss?” Pretty safe bet there.
Adam Kramer
Clemson defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. We have been talking about him for some time now, and deservedly so, but I believe the Tigers defensive lineman will once again be a star and fixture of the playoff. It might not be a gaudy stat total, but Wilkins will impact Notre Dame’s offense in a plethora of ways that will show up during the game.
Bonus: Don’t be shocked if he scores a touchdown on offense. Maybe this is cheating, maybe not. Either way, you have been warned.
Kerry Miller
All four of these teams have solid offensive lines, but Notre Dame’s is the most penetrable of the bunch. Combine that with Clemson’s elite defensive line, and that’s where I’ve got to aim for this question. Let’s go with Austin Bryant, who had five tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks in the month of November. He’s sort of the forgotten member of this quartet of terror, but I could see him making a few huge tackles against the Fighting Irish.
Brad Shepard
With all the talk surrounding Lawrence following a failed drug test, his status is up in the air. But it’s another Clemson defensive player who will have the biggest game of all, and that’s Ferrell. The 6’5″, 260-pound defensive end came back for his senior season and quietly put up better numbers than he did as a junior. He has 17.5 tackles for loss against 18 last year, and he already has 10.5 sacks against 9.5 in 2017. He still has possibly two more games to play, too. He’ll be disruptive against the Irish.
Ian Wharton
Clemson freshman defensive end Xavier Thomas. There’s obviously a lot of attention given to the rest of the Tigers defensive line, but NFL scouts are already buzzing about Thomas. He is the most explosive and dangerous pass-rusher among the group. Notre Dame won’t have the luxury of double-teaming him, so he could have a monstrous impact on this matchup.
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Oklahoma quarterback Kyler MurrayAssociated Press
Matt Hayes
Kyler Murray. Alabama will eventually figure it out and will get the needed stops to win the game, but Murray will still do significant damage—both throwing and running—to the Tide defense. He’s a unique talent with a coach in Lincoln Riley who knows how to score points and is clearly the sport’s best play-caller at the moment.
David Kenyon
As a reminder, that we even entertain a question like this is a testament to Murray’s excellence. Nevertheless, give me two quarterbacks over one. Clemson’s pass defense, while still overwhelmingly positive, isn’t a shutdown unit. Texas A&M and South Carolina proved as much. And in full games, Lawrence has only failed to crack 250 passing yards when Clemson either won by 60 or more points or ran away with the ACC Championship.
Adam Kramer
The Sooners are still playing Alabama, right? Yes? I get that this is not the best Crimson Tide defense Nick Saban has had, but I also don’t see this being a complete defensive breakdown—even though Murray is fun and special and will certainly get his.
But more importantly, Clemson and Notre Dame should score plenty. Both QBs will be active, and I don’t think this will be that close. Unless Murray totals 550 yards—and hell, he certainly could—give me the Cotton Bowl.
Kerry Miller
This is a tough call. Even though I think Alabama will win somewhat comfortably, Murray has averaged 423 total yards over his last six games and is going to be asked to throw a ton in this one. (This is the part where the Tua Tagovailoa Heisman stanners start screaming about Murray facing weak Big 12 defenses.) Ah, what the heck, I’ll go with Murray. Neither Lawrence nor Book does much scrambling, and they are each facing a secondary that allows fewer than 200 passing yards per game.
Brad Shepard
All quarterbacks in the Cotton Bowl. If Notre Dame is going to compete with Clemson—which it can—the Irish must have success through the air with Book. I can see him being unleashed a little here, and it’s going to be interesting to see if he responds and how he’s protected. Letting it fly will result in several big plays, and he and Lawrence will combine for nearly 450 yards.
Ian Wharton
The answer is definitely Murray. Book will have to throw a lot, but the passing windows will be small and the pressure will be relentless. Lawrence won’t have the volume to compete with Murray even when combining his numbers with Book. The likelihood of Murray having to constantly score to keep his team in the game makes him the choice.
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Howard Simmons/Associated Press
Matt Hayes
Here’s a stab in the dark: Alabama and Clemson. They’ve played in more CFP games than any other teams, and both have recruited at such a high level that graduations and early departures to the NFL haven’t been an issue—nor have quarterback controversies or playing freshman quarterbacks in critical situations.
David Kenyon
Alabama and Clemson until proven otherwise, honestly. Notre Dame has zero reason to apologize for the expected toughest opponents being average or worse in 2018, but that sort of schedule luck in consecutive years is unlikely. Oklahoma needs a transcendent quarterback to return to the playoff because this defense is not a one-year fix. The Sooners should still be terrific, but my early guess is it won’t be at a CFP level.
Adam Kramer
Alabama and Clemson will return; Oklahoma and Notre Dame will not. Ultimately, my answer boils down to Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence being back and surrounded by great players.
Both teams will have to replace a handful of really great defensive players, which will be no easy feat. It’ll be slightly easier for Clemson based on scheduling, which makes a difference. But I still see both teams—albeit different versions of what they are right now—having another great shot at winning a title next season.
Kerry Miller
Both Tagovailoa and Lawrence are coming back, so let’s go ahead and pencil Alabama and Clemson in for yet another trip to the playoff. And it wouldn’t surprise me if Oklahoma gets there, too. Losing Kyler Murray to baseball is a bummer, but between Austin Kendall, Tanner Mordecai and Spencer Rattler, the Sooners have serious options at QB. And the defense should be less dreadful with everyone other than Curtis Bolton presumably returning. I can’t see Notre Dame pulling off the repeat, though. Either Georgia or someone from the Big Ten will replace the Fighting Irish.
Brad Shepard
I don’t think Notre Dame will make it back next season, though it is possible with Ian Book and a lot of its stars returning. And Oklahoma will take a one-year hiatus behind Texas in the Big 12. But it’s impossible to bet against Alabama and Clemson right now. Those two programs are here pretty much every year, and the biggest offensive playmakers on both sides are underclassmen. Thus, the Tide and Tigers will be back yet again.
Ian Wharton
Clemson for sure. Its schedule is more favorable than Alabama’s; the Tide will have to travel to Kyle Field and Davis Wade Stadium, plus the Iron Bowl will be taking place on Auburn’s home turf next year. Both teams seem likely thanks to their youth on offense and transcendent talents at quarterback, though.
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Nick Saban and Dabo SwinneyGerald Herbert/Associated Press
Matt Hayes
Without question. There’s too much to like about both of these teams—and too many questions about Notre Dame and Oklahoma. I can’t see an Oklahoma defense playing in the national championship game. And Notre Dame hasn’t seen a team as complete as Clemson since the last time the Irish made it to the big stage…where they were clobbered by Alabama in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.
David Kenyon
Yes. Oklahoma’s near-historically bad red-zone defense will be too much for the Sooners to overcome opposite a competent defense. And Alabama is far better than competent. Clemson’s playmakers will win out despite getting a four-quarter fight from Notre Dame.
Adam Kramer
It will be. And I absolutely would love and embrace this matchup if that is the case. It doesn’t get old to me. These two teams have undergone such fascinating evolutions over the last few seasons that it doesn’t feel familiar. And this one would certainly be different.
Clemson will power past Notre Dame in the second half and win 38-24. I see Alabama at around the same margin of victory—maybe a little greater. The final score there will be 48-31.
Kerry Miller
Notre Dame will put up a good fight against Clemson, but, yes, we’re headed for another rendition of the Tigers against the Crimson Tide. Anything is possible, but Alabama and Clemson were clearly the two best teams in the country throughout the entire season, and there’s a reason they are each favored by roughly two touchdowns in these semifinals, per OddsShark.
People will complain that it’s “boring” to see the same teams squaring off in the CFP year after year, but ratings will prove otherwise. It’s the game we’ve been waiting for since, like, February, and I hope we get it.
Brad Shepard
Yes, it will. Get ready for it, because it’s going to be another great football game. That said, it’s hard going against Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide, though I know they weren’t themselves late in the year. If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, they’ll march to another title. Even if he doesn’t, Jalen Hurts is capable of bringing them even more hardware.
Ian Wharton
Yes. They’re the most athletic, well-rounded and well-coached team in each of their respective matchups. Oklahoma has the better chance to break into this game because of Kyler Murray and its incredible offense, but the defense has to overcome a deserved stigma. Honestly, a Notre Dame win over Clemson would be shocking.
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