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Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press
With the NFL playoffs around the corner, the attention of fans of the 20 teams who didn’t make the tournament has turned to the lead-up to the 2019 NFL draft in Nashville.
It’s a time of renewed hope for supporters of struggling teams, and of adding the player(s) who will get the franchise back on track. As we saw with the Class of 2018 and the Cleveland Browns, making the right picks can have a seismic impact on a franchise’s fortunes.
And as we also saw in Cleveland, it all starts with the quarterback position.
Generally speaking, the Class of 2019 isn’t as impressive (or as deep) as the loaded class that saw four quarterbacks taken in the top 10. But that doesn’t mean this year’s class is bereft of difference-makers—beginning with a strong-armed Buckeye who found pay dirt 50 times in 2018.
We know there is no shortage of NFL teams with a need at quarterback—whether’s it’s immediate help as a starter or a potential successor to a household name. But from the perspective of those young passers about to make the leap to the NFL, which landing spots give them the best chances to succeed? And which could doom them to failure?
Here’s one stab at figuring that out.
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Jae C. Hong/Associated Press
It’s technically not certain that Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins is even entering the NFL draft. But after surpassing the 50-touchdown mark for the season in a Rose Bowl win over Washington, the general consensus seems to be that the 6’3″, 220-pound signal-caller will go pro.
It’s not that all hard to figure out why, either. The moment that Oregon’s Justin Herbert decided to return to Eugene, Haskins, who re-wrote the single-season record books in Columbus with 4,831 passing yards and those 50 touchdowns in 2018, became the No. 1 quarterback prospect on the overwhelming majority of draft boards.
Haskins will go early, no doubt. The only question at this point is how early.
Best Fit: New York Giants
Over the days, weeks and months to come, you’re going to see Dwayne Haskins and the Giants linked about 37 bajillion times.
There’s good reason for that: Haskins and the Giants make a ton of sense as a match.
Big Blue needs a successor to Eli Manning under center. But Manning’s presence would also mean Haskins, who has just one year of college starts under his belt, wouldn’t have to be thrown to the wolves from Day 1.
The Giants have an offensive-minded head coach in Pat Shurmur and superstar skill-position weapons in Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. And in the Big Apple, Haskins could become a superstar in his own right.
Of course, playing there also means big-time pressure. So does following a two-time Super Bowl MVP.
And the No. 6 overall pick may not be enough to get Haskins.
Worst Fit: Washington Redskins
Might as well stay in the NFC East.
The Washington Redskins didn’t expect to be in the market for a starting quarterback in 2019. But with Alex Smith facing an uncertain future after a gruesome leg injury, Washington is suddenly thrust into a position where the team’s 2019 starter is a huge question mark.
In addition to needing immediate help at quarterback, the team has a so-so (at best) cadre of pass-catchers, a head coach in Jay Gruden who is on the thinnest of ice and a front office that’s rather messy.
Never mind the added pressure that a trade up would put on Haskins to ride in and immediately save the day.
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Gerry Broome/Associated Press
There’s no question that Duke’s Daniel Jones will be entering the NFL draft. After passing for 2,674 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions for the Blue Devils in 2018, Jones declared his intent to pursue his dream of playing in the NFL.
Per ESPN.com, the latest project of Duke coach David Cutcliffe has drawn comparisons to one of the NFL’s better young quarterbacks. “There are similarities to Carson Wentz,” one NFL evaluator told Mike Sando, “great kid, great family, big body, makes all the throws, pretty smart, but does have an injury history. What he’s got going for him is the guy coaching him [Cutcliffe]. That is going to play so much in his favor. He could end up being the top quarterback drafted.”
The first quarterback off the board might be a stretch, but the No. 2 guy (and a first-round pick) is well within reach.
Best Fit: Jacksonville Jaguars
For this move to happen, it would take either a trade down or an aggressive move by the Jaguars—taking Jones at No. 7, well ahead of where most draftniks have him slotted.
Here’s the thing, though: The Jaguars entered the season as a Super Bowl contender, only to see the year come off the rails because of shoddy quarterback play.
The Jaguars don’t need a game-changer under center. They just need a capable quarterback who understands the game and can make a throw when needed.
Jones is the most pro-ready player at the position in this class, and the quarterback best-equipped to play from the get-go in the pros.
Worst Fit: Miami Dolphins
There’s little question that the Miami Dolphins are in the market for a new quarterback. Ryan Tannehill conceded that his days with the team may have come to an and after another disappointing season.
The problem for whatever quarterback the Dolphins settle on is that there won’t be much around him. Miami’s offense wasn’t the worst in the AFC solely because of Tannehill. There’s not much there in the way of receiving talent, the head coach was just fired and the offensive line was ranked 31st in the NFL in pass protection, according to Football Outsiders.
Depending on the new coach and an offseason of player acquisition, this situation could change pretty dramatically. But as things stand right now, Miami’s next quarterback is set up to fail.
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L.G. Patterson/Associated Press
All the way back in June, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com made a player comparison with Missouri’s Drew Lock that should have scouts and draft experts alike licking their chops.
“I see a lot of similarities to Patrick Mahomes when he was coming out of Texas Tech,” Jeremiah said. “Both guys have big arms and move around really well. They can extend plays with their athleticism and fit balls into tiny windows. However, like Mahomes, Lock needs to be more judicious with the football and cut down on the mistakes that are a result of overaggressiveness.”
Since then, an up-and-down 2018 season may have dinged Lock’s stock a tad. His completion percentage (60.4) over the last two years wasn’t a jaw-dropper, but over 7,400 passing yards and 72 touchdowns in the SEC are numbers that no doubt grabbed the attention of NFL teams.
Best Fit: Denver Broncos
The stars have already started aligning in this regard. Broncos general manager John Elway has scouted Lock, who was a four-year starter with the Tigers.
It’s no secret that the Denver Broncos need a quarterback. In a best-case scenario, Case Keenum was never going to be more than a short-term fix under center, and if 2018 is any indication, the best-case isn’t what the Broncos will be getting from the veteran.
However, having Keenum under contract for one more year removes some of the pressure to start a youngster right away. Lock could spend his rookie year as a redshirt of sorts—honing his craft and learning from a veteran.
You know, just like Mahomes did.
Worst Fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
To be fair, this being a bad fit really has little to do with Lock as a player. And in players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and tight end O.J. Howard, the Buccaneers have talent in the passing game.
But like many of the worst fits here, the Buccaneers are a franchise in flux. And the last thing the new head coach (whoever that may be) needs as he takes the job is the creation of a huge controversy by spending a first-round pick on a quarterback.
Is Jameis Winston the guy in Tampa? The answer to that question is uncertain. But the best course of action for the team is either a middle-round pick at the position or (better yet) giving Winston his option year to sort it out before re-visiting the position in a (perceived) deeper QB class in 2020.
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Ray Thompson/Associated Press
Will Grier raised a few eyebrows when he took a seat for West Virginia’s bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. But that’s the reality of the College Football Playoff era, and it isn’t the only thing that makes Grier one of the more polarizing quarterback prospects in this year’s class.
Grier’s supporters point to his accuracy (67.0 percent completion), high level of production (71 touchdown passes the past two years) and competitive spirit. His detractors point to his troubled tenure at Florida, lack of big-time arm strength and less-than-ideal measurables (he’s 6’2″ standing on an encyclopedia).
There isn’t a quarterback in the Class of 2018 with more to lose (or gain) at the Senior Bowl and combine than Grier.
Best Fit: New England Patriots
Stop rolling your eyes.
Unless Grier goes absolutely berserk during the lead-up to the 2019 draft, he’s a fringe first-rounder at best. And if he does crack the first round, it will likely be as a long-term project behind an established starter.
As those situations go, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better one than in New England.
There’s been nothing to indicate that Tom Brady has any intention of retiring after the season, but the end of the line is getting closer for the Golden Boy. Grier would at least upgrade the depth behind Brady in Beantown.
At best, he would earn the unenviable task of succeeding the winningest quarterback in NFL history.
That should be fun.
Worst Fit: Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders have three picks in the first round of the 2019 NFL draft and six selections in the top 100.
Using any of those picks on Grier would be a mistake by the team and a disaster for the player.
On the surface, it doesn’t appear that there would be a lot of pressure on Grier to take the reins early in Oakland. But Derek Carr’s grip on the Raiders’ starting job isn’t ironclad, and it’s hard to say with any certainty what Jon Gruden and new general manager Mike Mayock might be thinking at quarterback right now.
Oakland has a weak receiving corps and one of the worst O-lines in terms of sacks allowed in the NFL. Whoever plays quarterback for the team in 2019 is in for a long season.
Wait and use an early pick under center in 2020. Oakland may well pick first overall that year.
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Gerry Broome/Associated Press
There was a time when Ryan Finley seemed to be a first-round pick. The sixth-year senior looks the part of an NFL quarterback at 6’4″ and 212 pounds, and he has 38 collegiate starts under his belt. He completed over 67 percent of his passes at North Carolina State in 2018 and flirted with 4,000 passing yards.
However, Finley’s 2018 season wasn’t as impressive as either teams or scouts would have hoped—although a quarterback is often only as good as the talent around him. Scouting Finley is an exercise in priorities. If you’re a team that values poise in the pocket and awareness, Finley will appeal to you. If you’re all about a cannon for an arm or the ability to extend plays with one’s legs, he’s not a quarterback who will inspire many oohs and aahs.
Best Fit: Los Angeles Chargers
I have a hard time seeing Finley as a long-term starter at the professional level. He’s a good quarterback, but he’s never going to be a great one. He just doesn’t have the arm talent that a signal-caller needs to excel at the game’s highest level.
He’s also already 24 years old. It’s not like there’s a lot of room for Finley to improve. Among this year’s top-five quarterback prospects, he’s the one who is already closest to his ceiling.
However, I do think Finley has the makeup to be an excellent backup in the NFL for many years, and it’s possible I have underestimated his upside. A landing spot behind Philip Rivers in L.A. would afford Finley a low-profile transition to the pros behind a fellow Wolfpack alum.
The Chargers need a better backup plan than Geno Smith and a potential successor to Rivers, because, well: Geno Smith. Finley could fit that bill on Day 2.
Worst Fit: Washington Redskins
This may seem like piling on, but it’s simply meant to demonstrate how much pressure there is in Washington to find a cheap option they can roll out at quarterback while Alex Smith attempts to resurrect his career.
It’s a rotten break for both player and team, but if Washington drafts a rookie who either isn’t ready or just isn’t an NFL-caliber starter, that quarterback’s confidence will be thrown out alongside Smith’s career and Washington’s playoff hopes.
This team is in real trouble, from the front office to a head coach desperate to save his job to an offense that isn’t set up to help a quarterback succeed.
It’s as dysfunctional as Congress.
Every high-end rookie quarterback in this class should pray they don’t hear their name called when Washington is on the clock.
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