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It’s prediction time, hoops heads.
With the NBA season’s official halfway point in the rearview and its unofficial midseason break (All-Star Weekend) around the corner, we’ve rallied seven writers to break down their predictions for each major end-of-season award.
To be clear: This is not an exercise designed to name winners if the season ended today. It’s designed to predict who will take home hardware at the conclusion of the 2018-19 campaign.
Everyone’s body of work up to this point will be taken into consideration, but so will how they figure to finish the final 30 or so games of the year.
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The Defensive Player of the Year race would be closer if Draymond Green hadn’t missed 14 games in the first half of the season, but even then, it’d be tough to argue for him over Rudy Gobert.
The league leader in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus and BBall Index’s Defensive Player Impact Plus-Minus, Gobert remains the NBA’s most fearsome rim protector. He may not lead the league in blocks, but that’s only because penetrators are too afraid to challenge him. Opponents shoot just a hair under 40 percent of their shots from the low-value mid-range area when Gobert is on the floor, an attempt rate that makes efficient offense all but impossible.
Gobert is so adept at defending pick-and-rolls without help that Utah’s perimeter defenders can stay glued to their assignments. This is largely why Jazz opponents attempt only 28.3 percent of their shots from deep when Gobert is in the game, a figure that ranks in the league’s eighth percentile.
Utah ranks fourth overall in defensive efficiency, according to NBA.com, but it is significantly better than that with Gobert on the court. Cleaning the Glass, which filters out garbage time and end-of-quarter heaves to get a clearer picture of actual performance, rates the Jazz’s defense as the best in the league.
Barring a surge from Green or a shot-blocking binge from Myles Turner over the second half of the season, this is Gobert’s award to lose.
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The Sixth Man of the Year candidate list is extensive. Last year’s winner, Lou Williams, deserves a look, as does former MVP Derrick Rose. Spencer Dinwiddie and Montrezl Harrell belong both in this race and the Most Improved Player discussion.
But Domantas Sabonis best combines production, impact and team success, which should help him become the first reserve big man to win this trophy since Lamar Odom in 2010-11.
Sabonis is almost averaging a double-double in only 25 minutes a night and is shooting better than 61 percent from the field. He leads all reserves with a plus-205 plus/minus and leads all Pacers regulars with a plus-7.3 net rating.
His production seems capped only by his playing time, as his across-the-board talents show few weak spots. His per-36-minute numbers—21.5 points, 13.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists—suggest he not only deserves a starting gig, but potentially could emerge as a star if given one.
Indy’s depth has been an asset, even though offseason investments in Tyreke Evans and Doug McDermott haven’t paid off as expected. That’s a credit to Sabonis. The Pacers as a whole are top-five juggernauts, which has as much to do with Sabonis as anyone.
While you could argue for a handful of brilliant bench players here, Sabonis makes the strongest case.
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Coach of the Year is ridiculously tough. It’s always teeming with worthy candidates, and selecting one often comes at the inadvertent discredit of the others. This season is no exception. Plenty of names will be bandied about.
- Gregg Popovich has kept the Spurs relevant in the aftermath of Kawhi Leonard’s departure.
- Mike Malone has the Nuggets contending for the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed amid an absurd number of injuries.
- Nate McMillan’s Pacers are party-crashing the top of the Eastern Conference and have shown they can hang tough without Victor Oladipo—a development that, unfortunately, will be put to the ultimate test following his latest knee injury.
- Doc Rivers shows an uncomfortable amount of loyalty to Avery Bradley, but his Clippers are deep, punchy, fun and, most importantly, pretty damn good.
- Billy Donovan has helped the Thunder navigate poor shooting and various injuries to re-enter the “Hey, these guys might be the Warriors’ biggest threat in the West” conversation.
- Kenny Atkinson has the Nets—wait for it—on track to make the playoffs.
- Dave Joerger is overseeing an unanticipated renaissance in Sacramento.
Other names loom, albeit to lesser degrees. The right pick: Mike Budenholzer, who has overhauled the Bucks’ title appeal without the front office actually overhauling the roster.
Seventy percent of Milwaukee’s rotation minutes from last season remain on the team. Somehow, though, the Bucks are barely recognizable. Nearly 80 percent of their shots are coming at the rim and from beyond the arc, up from from 65.5 percent last season, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Stealing Brook Lopez in free agency is not the sole source of that functional shift. Budenholzer has overseen improved shot profiles from incumbents, most notably Khris Middleton.
On top of all that, the Bucks are getting more consistent defense from Eric Bledsoe and serviceable minutes from Sterling Brown and D.J. Wilson. They are a deep bunch, but the way in which Bud manages that depth is critical—and a huge reason why they remain the only team that ranks in the top five of both offensive and defensive efficiency.
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With so much great work being done in NBA front offices, it’s hard to narrow it down to a single midseason Executive of the Year winner, especially before the Feb. 7 trade deadline, when—who knows?—the ultimate winner could emerge.
You could point straight to the Lakers and say, “Game over,” since Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka did sign the best player on the planet, LeBron James. Then again, Mary Poppins could’ve been the Lakers’ GM, and Jame still would’ve gone to L.A.
You could point to Oklahoma City, where Sam Presti’s gamble to trade for Paul George paid off, as the All-Star agreed to a four-year, $137 million deal to stay with the Thunder. George and Steven Adams are having career years, OKC is third in the West (only four games behind the Warriors) and Russell Westbrook isn’t even playing like Russell Westbrook yet.
Speaking of the Warriors, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the offseason acquisition of DeMarcus Cousins, who is beginning to Boogie in the Bay Area. Not to diminish Golden State’s excellence under the leadership of Bob Myers, but they did kind of luck into Kevin Durant (2016 cap spike) and now Cousins (available at a bargain-basement price because he was coming off an Achilles injury).
You could point to the Indiana Pacers, who fortified their depth with a series of under-the-radar moves (Kyle O’Quinn, Tyreke Evans, Doug McDermott). Under the former Portland leadership of Kevin Pritchard, Chad Buchanan and Nate McMillan, the Pacers climbed all the way to third in the East…though Victor Oladipo went down Wednesday night with a serious knee injury.
In the end, I’m going with the team that sits second in the East after a series of bold offseason moves: the Toronto Raptors. Team president Masai Ujiri fired Coach of the Year Dwane Casey and promoted Nick Nurse, a coaching grinder who came up through the inglorious minor league ranks and earned a shot after five years as Casey’s assistant.
Ujiri also traded the popular DeMar DeRozan to the Spurs and added a top-five player in Kawhi Leonard—not to mention Danny Green, a sharpshooter with championship experience. When you fire a successful head coach and break up an All-Star backcourt and your team gets better, that’s the stuff that Executives of the Year are made of.
If the prediction holds, it would be the second such honor for Ujiri, who won the award with the Denver Nuggets in 2013.
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Rookie of the Year is going to Luka Doncic, who leads the class in scoring (19.9 points), ranks second in assists (5.3) and third in rebounding (6.8).
He’ll wind up producing his way toward the award, though it never hurts to play an exciting style of offense, which he’s executing with an unusual comfort level for a teenager.
The last All-Star voting count had him No. 2 among Western Conference players.
Along with all the flashy moves and stats, he’s also demonstrated his signature knack for coming alive during key late-game stretches.
Deandre Ayton will steal votes for his scoring efficiency and double-double average. But he’s been mostly a finisher and back-to-the-basket option, as opposed to Doncic, who’s creating and generating offense with far more versatility and skill.
As the Dallas Mavericks’ No. 1 scoring and playmaking option, he’ll take the majority of credit for the team’s improvement (21 wins through Jan. 23) since last year (24 wins total), while Ayton’s Suns have the worst record in the West at 11-38.
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If the NBA had a midseason MVP, James Harden might win in a landslide. He still might this June.
But these MVP races tend to sway and swerve and evolve over 82 games. When it’s all over, I believe Giannis Antetokounmpo will be the one cradling the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
His nightly scoring figures are not as gaudy as Harden’s, but consider this: Giannis is the only player in the NBA averaging at least 25 points, 10 rebounds and five assists (he’s at 26.5, 12.6 and 5.9, respectively). He’s also averaging more than a block (1.4) and a steal (1.3) per game. He not only drives the league’s third-ranked offense, but he guards every position and anchors the NBA’s top defense.
Heading into Thursday, Giannis ranks ninth leaguewide in scoring, sixth in rebounds, 10th in assists, third in free-throw attempts and 10th in field-goal percentage. Here’s the other stat that matters: .739. That’s the Bucks’ winning percentage, the best in the NBA.
Nearly every MVP in the last 30 years has come from a clear title contender—a team that won at least 50 games and finished top three in its conference. The lone recent exception was 2016-17 MVP Russell Westbrook, whose Thunder won 47 games and finished sixth in the West.
Giannis fits the MVP mold perfectly: a transcendent talent who is leading a legit contender in the East. The Bucks are on pace to win 60 games.
Harden will make this a tough race. But the Rockets aren’t likely to crack 50 wins, and there’s a chance Harden’s game will start to suffer from the heavy minutes and heavy usage. LeBron James will be in the mix if he gets the Lakers into the playoffs, but his games missed (14 and counting) will hurt his candidacy, as will his team’s record. Kawhi Leonard will make a strong case as the driving force for the Raptors. Joel Embiid will earn attention as the key star in Philadelphia.
Steph Curry and Kevin Durant have the requisite stats and team winning percentage, but they’ll surely split votes as co-leaders of the Warriors. Anthony Davis’ candidacy, already weakened by the Pelicans’ poor record, probably ended with the news he’ll be out for weeks with a hand injury.
The Giannis campaign requires no caveats or asterisks. Just a lot of exclamation points.
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