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Wofford’s Fletcher MageeLance King/Getty Images
Wofford will likely be a single-digit seed in the 2019 NCAA tournament, but the Terriers will be donning glass slippers as the most dangerous Cinderella team in the field.
Last week, we did sleeper rankings for the tournament, and now you’re getting the Cinderella candidates.
You might be wondering: What’s the difference?
Any program could be a sleeper with the appropriate seed, but Cinderella status is determined on a case-by-case basis, rooted in the program’s history rather than its current season.
Syracuse making the Final Four as a No. 10 seed in 2016 was a great sleeper story, but it was not a Cinderella situation. Nor would it be a Cinderella story if Indiana sneaks in as a No. 12 seed before reaching the Elite Eight. Really, with the exception of DePaul, Rutgers and maybe one could argue for St. John’s, it’s almost impossible to find a Cinderella candidate from a major conference.
But teams like Gonzaga, VCU and Wichita State wouldn’t count as Cinderella candidates, either, unless I missed the part of the fairy tale where she goes back and finds her glass slipper every year. Thus, we can’t make blanket statements based on conference affiliation.
As a rule of thumb, any mid-major or minor-conference team seeded No. 7 or worse that hasn’t made some sort of run in the NCAA tournament in the past decade was eligible for inclusion.
Now that that’s settled, our top 10 Cinderella candidates are ranked in ascending order of how terrifying it would be to see your favorite team matched against them in the tournament.
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Pat Andree and Brett ReedPeter G. Aiken/Getty Images
Quick Thoughts
Lehigh is not your standard Cinderella candidate. Most of the teams we’re looking at today are in the projected Nos. 11-13 seed range for the NCAA tournament, but the Mountain Hawks would likely be a No. 15 or No. 16 seed if they’re able to win the Patriot League tourney.
That didn’t stop them from pulling off one of the biggest first-round upsets of all time when they knocked off No. 2 seed Duke in 2012. The roster is obviously different now, but head coach Brett Reed has been there before and won’t be afraid of the moment.
What They Do Well
This is the most accurate three-point shooting team in the nation, sitting at 43.7 percent for the year. Lehigh has four players—Lance Tejada, Kyle Leufroy, Pat Andree and Jordan Cohen—who each average better than 13 points per game and shoot at least 43 percent from downtown.
For as accurate as they are, the Mountain Hawks don’t attempt many long balls, averaging 22.4 per game. But if there’s a potential No. 16 seed out there who can repeat UMBC’s 12-of-24 performance against Virginia in last year’s tournament, you’re looking at them.
What They Don’t Do Well
Aside from the threes and free throws, Lehigh doesn’t do much well. This team is just plain bad on defense and is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams this season. Also, the Mountain Hawks are 0-8 against KenPom top-160 teams, so knocking off a top-10 team would be quite the surprise.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Kentucky or Tennessee
“Ideal” is a strong word here, because both Kentucky and Tennessee could manhandle Lehigh’s defense and put up 100 points. But of the viable candidates for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, these two SEC teams are the worst at defending the three-point arc.
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Justin Wright-ForemanMitchell Layton/Getty Images
Quick Thoughts
The last time Hofstra made the NCAA tournament was with Jay Wright calling the shots in 2001. In four trips, this team has never won a tournament game. But this offense might be gifted enough to end that drought.
Recent losses to Northeastern, UNC Wilmington and James Madison ended Hofstra’s dream for an at-large bid, but this is still a good team that has won 19 of its last 22 contests. The Pride only had a couple of opportunities for quality wins this season, and they put up a solid fight in those road losses to Maryland and VCU.
What They Do Well
Hofstra is second in the nation in free-throw shooting (79.4 percent), ranks top five in offensive turnover percentage, ranks top 15 in three-point percentage and is in the top 40 in two-point percentage. Some of that is a product of playing a weak schedule, but there’s no denying this team has some great shooters.
Justin Wright-Foreman (26.6 PPG, 43.3 3P%, 86.6 FT%) is the clear leader of the bunch, but five of the Pride’s primary six guys shoot better than 77 percent from the charity stripe, shoot better than 36 percent from distance and average at least one made triple per game. It’s almost impossible to shut down all their options.
What They Don’t Do Well
Hofstra doesn’t do much of anything on the defensive end, and outside of Purdue transfer Jacquil Taylor, this is a bad rebounding team. The Pride are capable of shooting their way to a win against just about any opponent, but even a slightly off night can turn into a disaster given those defensive and rebounding woes.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Nevada
Nevada is a poor offensive rebounding team, and it doesn’t shoot well from three-point range. In fact, in eight games since the start of December in which the Wolf Pack shot 28.0 percent or worse from distance, they are averaging 68.3 points. That’s a total Wright-Foreman and Co. can reach, even against a solid Nevada defense.
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Garrison MathewsBob Leverone/Associated Press
Quick Thoughts
Just like Hofstra, Lipscomb’s at-large dream has taken a huge hit in the past couple of weeks, losing a home game against Liberty and a road game against Florida Gulf Coast. Fair or not, minor-conference teams almost need to be perfect in league play to get the selection committee’s attention.
The reason the Bisons were ever in the conversation in the first place, though, was road wins over TCU and Liberty, a nice home win over Vermont and hard-fought losses to Belmont (twice) and Louisville. They’ve already shown that they are not going to go quietly into the night if they do get into the Big Dance.
What They Do Well
Lipscomb is sort of a poor man’s version of North Carolina. The Bisons do a lot of things at an above-average level, but what makes them so tough to beat is that they do all those things at a breakneck pace. They like to run the floor, and they’ll leave you in the dust if you don’t do the same.
What They Don’t Do Well
Against major-conference foes, Lipscomb’s lack of size has been a major issue. Both Clemson and Louisville crushed the Bisons on the glass while making it difficult for them to score in the paint. And neither of those ACC teams is that great at rebounding. A team like Maryland, Kentucky, Duke or Houston would likely annihilate Lipscomb in the battle for second-chance points.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Wisconsin
The Badgers aren’t great on the glass and they do not like to run. It’s typically easier to slow down an opponent than it is to speed one up, so maybe Wisconsin would win the pace-of-play tug-of-war contest. But this matchup would make for an intriguing contrast in styles.
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Mike DaumSam Wasson/Getty Images
Quick Thoughts
We’re reaching a boy who cried “Wolf!” breaking point with this program. South Dakota State has been a popular Cinderella candidate in five of the past seven years, but it has yet to win a game in the NCAA tournament. The Jackrabbits did come close last year against Ohio State and three years ago against Maryland, but all for naught.
Still, this is a well-balanced team that put up one heck of a fight on the road against Nevada in spite of awful performances by its two best players. This could finally be the year the Jackrabbits bust up the bracket.
What They Do Well
The Jackrabbits can score as well as any team. Mike Daum leads the way with more than 25 per night, but factor in David Jenkins Jr. and Skyler Flatten and you’re looking at more than 60 points just from that trio—all three of which are lethal from three-point range. South Dakota State has scored at least 78 points in each of its Summit League games, this after entering conference play averaging 84.7.
What They Don’t Do Well
This defense is awful. The Jackrabbits don’t force turnovers, they don’t block shots and they give up three-pointers at an astronomical rate. They have allowed at least 80 points in more than one-third of games played, despite only playing three games against KenPom top-100 opponents. A team like Duke or Gonzaga could drop 125 points on these guys.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Texas Tech
There aren’t many projected No. 3 or No. 4 seeds who struggle to score, but Texas Tech has had more than its fair share of poor offensive performances. The Red Raiders have the nation’s most efficient defense, though, so don’t bank on a 78-point performance by the Jackrabbits.
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Neemias QuetaDavid Becker/Getty Images
Quick Thoughts
Utah State is on the path to becoming the primary team that bracketologists struggle with in the bubble debates. The Aggies have a decent Quadrant 1 win over Saint Mary’s, and that’s about it. But they only have six losses, none of which were unforgivably awful.
The analytics love Utah State, though. The NET, KenPom and even the now-defunct RPI all have the Aggies rated as a top-45 team, which is more than keeping them in the conversation. So if they can sneak in as a No. 11 or No. 12 seed, they won’t be much of an underdog in the first round.
What They Do Well
Anchored by Neemias Queta, Utah State has one of the best interior defenses. Opponents shoot below 42 percent on two-point attempts and the Aggies rank second in the nation in defensive rebound percentage. In that key win over Saint Mary’s, USU blocked eight shots (five by Queta) and the Gaels made 31.6 percent of their two-point attempts. Only three opponents have scored more than 73 in a game against the Aggies.
What They Don’t Do Well
One of the biggest reasons the predictive metrics are enamored with Utah State is that there is no blatant Achilles’ heel. However, it’s worth noting that the Aggies have struggled to score in their limited opportunities against quality defenses. Both Houston and Nevada held them to 50 points or fewer.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are good-not-great on defense, and a lot of their offense is a product of second-chance opportunities. If the Aggies can limit offensive rebounds like they have all year, they could pull off a convincing upset.
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Ja MorantTimothy D. Easley/Associated Press
Quick Thoughts
With all due respect to Belmont (which is ranked higher on this list), most of the nation is going to be rooting for Murray State to win the Ohio Valley Conference tournament so that we can see Ja Morant in the NCAA tournament again.
If the Racers fall short of earning the auto bid, there won’t be much of a case for at-large inclusion. They came close in losses to Auburn and Alabama, but a complete dearth of quality wins will likely be too much to overcome.
What They Do Well
Murray State both makes two-pointers and defends three-pointers about as well as any team this season. Morant and backcourt-mate Shaq Buchanan are leading the way in both departments—especially Morant, due to his propensity to drive the lane before finding open teammates. The offense struggled for a bit after he rolled his ankle in late January, but the Racers are back to firing on all cylinders.
What They Don’t Do Well
Defending the paint was a huge problem in all four of Murray State’s losses. Auburn, Belmont and Jacksonville State each shot at least 65 percent from inside the arc, and Alabama was able to get back 42.9 percent of offensive rebound chances against the Racers. An opponent committed to (and able to) wear down the Racers with two-point buckets and interior defense would be a big problem.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Villanova
It takes guts to want to face the team that has won two of the last three national championships, but on paper it’s a perfect matchup for Murray State. Villanova shoots more threes than twos, and its interior defense is average, at best.
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Matt RaffertyRichard Shiro/Associated Press
Quick Thoughts
Furman’s odds of making the NCAA tournament aren’t great. The Paladins will likely need to beat Wofford in the SoCon semifinals, which no team in the conference has been able to do yet this season. But if they do get in, watch out. In case you’ve forgotten, this is the team that started out 12-0 and picked up an incredible road win over Villanova.
What They Do Well
This is the same observation made in our previous ranking of Cinderella candidates, but the numbers are even more impressive now: Furman ranks ninth in the nation in steal percentage and sixth in defensive free-throw rate.
It’s a mind-boggling combination. With the exception of Duke, every other team in the top 10 in steal percentage ranks outside the top 200 in defensive free-throw rate—which is what you expect from a team that aggressively hunts steals. In the first year of “Press Virginia,” the Mountaineers led the nation in steal percentage and ranked dead last in free-throw rate. But Furman does an outstanding job of picking its pickpocketing spots.
What They Don’t Do Well
Furman is just OK on the glass, and while its defense averages nearly nine steals, its offense allows more than seven per game. There’s not much depth on the roster, either. Between the recent win over UNC Greensboro and home loss to Wofford, the usual starters combined for all but two of the points scored.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Maryland
The Terrapins have one of the worst turnover margins in the nation and they don’t spend much time at the free-throw line. Matt Rafferty would have his hands full with trying to slow down both Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith in the post, but the Paladins could finish this game with more steals than Maryland would have free-throw attempts.
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Dylan WindlerDaniel R. Patmore/Associated Press
Quick Thoughts
Not much has changed about Belmont in the past two decades. Per usual, Rick Byrd’s Bruins move the ball constantly, shoot a lot of threes, convert a ton of twos and have one of the better effective field-goal percentages in the nation. This team has been overlooked by many because Murray State’s Ja Morant is the star of the Ohio Valley Conference, but Belmont already won at Murray State and it might have another big win or two up its sleeve.
What They Do Well
Thanks to a fast pace of play and a top-10 ranking in effective field-goal percentage, Belmont can score in bunches. Led by senior Dylan Windler (20.7 points and 10.2 rebounds), the Bruins rank second in the nation with 87.6 points per game.
What They Don’t Do Well
Belmont does a fine job defending the paint, but its overall defensive numbers leave much to be desired. The Bruins don’t force many turnovers, their three-point defense is just average and they have allowed at least 83 points on nine occasions. In terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, the Bruins are barely a top-150 team on KenPom.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Iowa
Belmont loves to run, and Iowa is more than happy to do the same. In what would be a battle between uptempo teams with excellent offenses and far-from-stellar defenses, this might be a race to 100 points. For Belmont’s sake, that’s much better than drawing a team like Kansas State that wants to play a defensive game with no flow whatsoever.
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Jeremy HarrisJeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press
Quick Thoughts
Buffalo has lost a little bit of its luster since those early wins over West Virginia, San Francisco and Syracuse. Losses to Northern Illinois and Bowling Green have forced bracketologists—as well as anyone who plans to fill out a bracket next month—to question just how good this team is.
But let’s be serious: A close road loss here and there in the middle of league play is no big deal, especially in a solid conference like the Mid-American. This is still a top-20 team as far as both KenPom and the NET are concerned. If the Bulls win out, they’ll probably be a No. 5 seed, hoping to avoid the dreaded 12-over-5 upset.
What They Do Well
Buffalo typically dominates the turnover battle, forcing four more than it commits on average. In the 23-point win over Kent State on Friday, the Bulls were plus-14 in that category. Conversely, they were minus-nine in turnover margin in their loss to Bowling Green earlier this month. Fortunately for them, the pluses happen far more often than the minuses.
What They Don’t Do Well
For a team that takes more than 43 percent of its shots from three-point range, Buffalo isn’t that good at making them. Excluding the game against D-II Le Moyne, the Bulls are shooting 34.2 percent from distance—slightly below the national average. Jeremy Harris has attempted the most triples this season, but he’s only sinking 25.9 percent. Even in the marquee win over Syracuse, they were just 10-of-33.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: UCF
Whether Buffalo is a No. 5 or No. 6 seed, it should be heavily favored against the bubble team it draws in the first round. The more interesting matchup might be in the second round, where a team like Kansas—which allows a lot of threes and has an average turnover margin—could be ripe for the picking.
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Fletcher MageeEllen Ozier/Associated Press
Quick Thoughts
It took about a month too long, but Wofford finally cracked into the AP Top 25 this week. Aside from Gonzaga, these Terriers are the only team in the country with an undefeated record in conference play—and they are doing it in a Southern Conference that is much stronger than usual.
Barring a complete meltdown in the form of consecutive losses to Chattanooga, Samford and either The Citadel or Western Carolina in the SoCon quarterfinals, Wofford is all but a lock for the NCAA tournament. And it is a legitimate threat for a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight run.
What They Do Well
Wofford is absurdly good at shooting threes. That wasn’t the case early in the season against the likes of Kansas and North Carolina when Fletcher Magee was struggling. But in their last 17 games, the Terriers have shot 45.3 percent from downtown, averaging 11.5 makes per game. They have four guys averaging at least 3.0 attempts per game, each of whom is shooting better than 40 percent.
What They Don’t Do Well
It’d be hard to argue that Wofford is bad at anything, but it’s nothing special on defense. Outside of solid rebounding numbers, the Terriers are close to the national average in all categories on that end of the floor.
Ideal First-Round Opponent: Arizona State or Syracuse
Wofford ought to be a No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the tournament, in which case the Terriers would draw a bubble team to start things out. Both Arizona State and Syracuse allow a ton of three-pointers, which pairs beautifully with what Wofford wants to do. If this team is egregiously under-seeded, though, either Virginia Tech or Cincinnati also offers a three-point-friendly defense.
Advanced statistics courtesy of KenPom.com.
Kerry Miller covers men’s college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
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