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15. Sacramento Kings
If the Kings make the dance, it’ll be enough. This franchise hasn’t tasted playoff basketball since a 27-year-old Mike Bibby got them there in 2005-06. Every member of that team has been out of the league for years.
If Sacramento were to reach the postseason as the eighth seed, it’d mean instant death against Golden State in the first all-NorCal playoff series ever. But if the Kings scrap their way to sixth or seventh in the West, which is possible, you could talk yourself into their frenetic pace catching someone unaware and producing a first-round upset.
14. Brooklyn Nets
If the current standings hold, Brooklyn is in line for a toss-up meeting with the Pacers in the first round. Any slippage from either of those two teams will result in the Nets kicking off the postseason against one of the East’s beasts.
Much like the Rockets in the West (minus the benefit of having James Harden, which is kind of a big deal), Brooklyn’s three-centric approach introduces high variance to the proceedings. If D’Angelo Russell’s pull-up threes fall, and if Joe Harris’ refusal to miss persists, and if Spencer Dinwiddie’s thumb heals up enough for him to bust switches late in games, there’s a chance for a series win—but only if the standings produce the right opponent.
13. Indiana Pacers
If it feels like a slap in the face to slot a 38-20 team with the league’s second-best defense this low, please lay out the argument for how Indiana will eliminate at least two of Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Toronto and Boston before going on to knock out the Warriors in the Finals.
Indy’s recent run has been inspiring, but it’s still just 6-5 since Victor Oladipo’s season-ending injury. Without him, it’s hard to imagine a starless, balanced attack threatening the East’s best in a series. It’d be a fantastic story if the Pacers won a round, but a sober look at their future features, best-case scenario, a narrow escape against a team like Brooklyn before a swift dismissal in the second round.
12. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs succeed with seemingly inferior talent during the regular season because they’re more disciplined, professional and committed to executing Gregg Popovich’s schemes than the opposition. They beat the opponents they’re expected to beat, as evidenced by their 20-10 mark against sub-.500 teams.
They won’t see any of those clubs in the postseason—if they make it. So although their quirky, mid-range offense might prove difficult to game-plan against (most opponents spend the year hoping to permit those shots), defensive inadequacies and the evaporation of their nightly edge in execution make for a very low ceiling.
11. Utah Jazz
In a couple of upcoming cases, we’ll build the contender argument around an awesome defense. That logic applies to the Jazz, who’ve been second on that end since Jan. 1. If only we could trust Utah’s offense in a playoff series.
Excise their annual slow start, and the Jazz are still only 14th in scoring efficiency since the calendar flipped to 2019. On the year, the Jazz are 19th. That’s just not good enough, and we saw last season that Donovan Mitchell couldn’t provide enough efficient scoring (volume was no problem) to get Utah past the second round. Considering his effective field-goal percentage is actually down from his rookie season, it’s difficult to see Utah matching that achievement in 2019.
Slow Mitchell down, and Utah won’t get enough secondary creation to survive in a first-round series. There’s also an excellent chance Utah sees the Warriors in a No. 1-vs.-No. 8 matchup. That’s not promising.
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