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10. Cleveland Cavaliers
Practical Cap Space: -$27.6 million
The first challenge for the Cleveland Cavaliers would be convincing a notable free agent to come aboard an in-progress rebuild with no foreseeable surge coming. Unless Collin Sexton follows De’Aaron Fox’s footsteps while Kevin Love channels his Minnesota Timberwolves days, this roster isn’t talented enough to make any noise in the Eastern Conference.
The next challenge would be finding a roster spot. Ten players will operate on guaranteed contracts in 2019-20, and JR Smith will make the number swell to 11 on June 30 unless they Cavaliers choose to only pay the guaranteed $3.87 million on his $15.68 million pact and waive him. Even then, we have to factor in the team’s pair of first-round draft picks, as Cleveland will likely gain access to the Houston Rockets’ lottery-protected selection and retain its top-10-protected pick owed to the Atlanta Hawks.
Precious few roster spots available? Another season spent in the lottery? Over $120 million in guaranteed salaries even without counting cap holds for draft picks? That’s the perfect recipe for a last-place finish in this particular battle.
9. Portland Trail Blazers
Practical Cap Space: -$23.6 million
The Portland Trail Blazers are in a remarkably similar cap situation to that of the Cleveland Cavaliers, except they have the luxury of remaining competitive in the Western Conference playoff race. Should they pursue one more veteran for depth purposes, they’ll have that as a selling point.
Between Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Evan Turner, Jusuf Nurkic, Maurice Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Zach Collins, Anfernee Simons, Skal Labissiere and Gary Trent Jr., the Blazers already owe $120.9 million to 10 players with another first-rounder soon to hop aboard (barring a trade). So with an expensive roster already in tow, would they retain Al-Farouq Aminu, Rodney Hood, Seth Curry or Jake Layman rather than pursue external options?
Either way, they won’t have much flexibility.
8. Detroit Pistons
Practical Cap Space: minus-$8.7 million
Since Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson combine to make $79.4 million in 2019-20, the Detroit Pistons won’t enjoy much in the way of cap space.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t end there.
Even if the Pistons get rid of the non-guaranteed contracts claimed by Glenn Robinson III and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, they’re still staring at a $105.9 million for nine players. That’s a bit too much for a non-contending roster, and it’s not like Detroit has many intriguing Bird rights options on its radar—among those hitting the market this summer, Ish Smith and Zaza Pachulia may well be the best choices for retention.
Detroit does have to fill some roster spots and gets to claim that it’s at least close to emerging as a playoff lock in the East. Making the postseason in 2018-19 might go a long way. But this situation remains unfavorable.
7. Denver Nuggets
Practical Cap Space: -$11.1 million
If the Denver Nuggets balk at their pricey roster, they could choose to turn down Paul Millsap’s $30 million team option. Impactful as he’s been while operating alongside Nikola Jokic, he’s moving deeper into his 30s and has suffered significant injuries during each of his two years in the Mile High City. If they’re willing to keep together such a potent core, they could also pick up his option and count on internal growth and a roster built around Jokic to carry them even higher in the Western Conference pecking order.
Traveling down the latter route would leave them with 12 players under contract for a combined $121.6 million. In the interest of full disclosure, we’re not even entertaining the idea of their waiving Jarred Vanderbilt to save money on his non-guaranteed deal.
The former would create one more opening. But they’d still be on the books for $91.6 million and down one vital cog without any guarantee of replacing that production in the free-agency pool. It only works if the organization is suddenly imbued with confidence in Michael Porter Jr.’s readiness, and that’s a risky proposition when he has yet to make his debut this deep into the 2018-19 campaign.
That possibility allows them to jump a few teams in these rankings, but it’s only that: a possibility. In all likelihood, Denver will trot out the same depth chart once again—though the team is set up well to make another high-upside veteran play like it did this past offseason with Isaiah Thomas.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Practical Cap Space: -$38.2 million
Let’s say Nerlens Noel and Patrick Patterson turn down their player options for $2.0 million and $5.7 million, respectively. Then the Oklahoma City Thunder choose not to guarantee Abdel Nader’s contract, which drops what they owe the seldom-used small forward from $1.6 million to a goose egg.
They’d still be on the books for $136.5 million with only eight players under team control. Granted, those eight (Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams, Dennis Schroder, Andre Roberson, Jerami Grant, Terrance Ferguson, Hamidou Diallo) are enough for OKC to remain in the hunt for home-court advantage in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs, but that’s a ton of cash.
Financial flexibility isn’t what allows the Thunder to rise above the four previous outfits, so much as the need to fill some roster spots. By definition, they’ll have to sign a few players, especially because they don’t have a second-round pick in the 2019 NBA draft.
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