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With conference tournaments right around the corner and the NCAA tournament’s first round starting March 21, the 2018-19 college basketball season is rapidly approaching its finish line.
At that point, the NBA draft becomes the big story in the college basketball world, so now is the perfect time to take a look at some of the top draft prospects from the college ranks.
Ahead, we’ve used the preseason mock draft and the most recent mock draft from Jonathan Givony of ESPN.com to help illustrate how the college basketball season has impacted the stock of some of the draft’s top talent.
Remember, there’s still time for a late-season rise up draft boards. Just ask Donte DiVincenzo.
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Nickeil Alexander-WalkerRyan M. Kelly/Getty Images
Let’s start with a quick look at some notable risers and fallers outside the top 10.
Any projected first-round pick from either of the previously mentioned mock drafts who saw his position change by more than 10 spots was included below. The first number represents preseason mock position, and the second is current mock position.
Stock Up
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech (No. 26 —> No. 16)
- KZ Okpala, Stanford (Undrafted —> No. 18)
- Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga (Undrafted —> No. 19)
- Talen Horton-Tucker, Iowa State (Undrafted —> No. 21)
- Grant Williams, Tennessee (Undrafted —> No. 23)
- Tre Jones, Duke (Undrafted —> No. 23)
- Coby White, North Carolina (Undrafted —> No. 24)
- Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois (Undrafted —> No. 25)
- Bruno Fernando, Maryland (No. 60 —> No. 30)
Stock Down
- Quentin Grimes, Kansas (No. 6 —> Undrafted)
- Eric Paschall, Villanova (No. 13 —> No. 28)
- Daniel Gafford, Arkansas (No. 14 —> No. 29)
- Herbert Jones, Alabama (No. 15 —> Undrafted)
- Charles Bassey, W. Kentucky (No. 20 —> No. 49)
- Jalen Smith, Maryland (No. 24 —> Undrafted)
- Jaylen Hoard, Wake Forest (No. 28 —> Undrafted)
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Mock Draft Movement: Undrafted —> No. 11
Height/Weight: 6’11”, 220 lbs
Stats: 23.5 MPG, 10.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.4 BPG, 28.1 PER
Jaxson Hayes was not expected to be a one-and-done NBA prospect. In fact, he wasn’t even a top-three recruit in the Texas recruiting class:
- Courtney Ramey: 4-star, No. 43 recruit
- Gerald Liddell: 4-star, No. 49 recruit
- Kamaka Hepa: 4-star, No. 58 recruit
- Jaxson Hayes: 4-star, No. 102 recruit
He’s still just scratching the surface of his ultimate potential, but it’s easy to dream on his long-term upside.
“That young man is going to be really good,” ESPN commentator Jay Bilas told Longhorn Network after Texas’ win over Kansas on Jan. 29 (via 247Sports). “He’s good now, but he’s going to be really good as he gets stronger and gets a stronger low base. I mean, that kid is the real deal. He’s terrific.”
Facing off against a good Oklahoma team Saturday, Hayes had 12 points, six rebounds and a season-high six blocks in 32 minutes.
Stock: Up
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Mock Draft Movement: No. 11 —> No. 9
Height/Weight: 6’7″, 225 lbs
Stats: 30.9 MPG, 15.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 26.6 PER
After redshirting for the 2016-17 season, De’Andre Hunter averaged just 6.5 points per game during the nonconference slate last season.
His production steadily ticked up as conference play progressed, and he’s taken another step forward this season to emerge as the primary offensive weapon on a 24-2 Virginia team.
As his volume has increased, he’s also become a more efficient offensive player across the board:
- FG%: 48.8 percent to 54.3 percent
- 3PT%: 38.2 percent to 47.4 percent
- FT%: 75.5 percent to 79.3 percent
He has an extremely high floor as a 3-and-D wing, and there’s still room for him to grow offensively.
Stock: Even
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John Weast/Getty Images
Mock Draft Movement: No. 18 —> No. 8
Height/Weight: 6’5″, 195 lbs
Stats: 31.2 MPG, 18.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 25.5 PER
Jarrett Culver has come a long way since grading out as a 3-star recruit and the No. 312 recruit in the 2017 class.
He quickly played his way into a bigger role than expected as a freshman and wound up starting 20 games while averaging 11.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 26.4 minutes per game.
With leading scorer Keenan Evans and super-athletic Zhaire Smith both departing from a Red Raiders team that won 27 games and reached the Elite Eight, Culver has now become the focal point.
Aside from ranking third in the Big 12 in scoring (18.0 PPG), he’s also eighth in the conference in field-goal percentage (.497), per ESPN.com. He’s also doubled his assist average from 1.8 to 3.6.
While he could stand to improve as an outside shooter, Culver brings enough to the table on both sides of the floor to warrant a lottery pick.
Stock: Up
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Cassy Athena/Getty Images
Mock Draft Movement: No. 9 —> No. 6
Height/Weight: 6’2″, 175 lbs
Stats: 27.8 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 23.2 PER
The No. 1 point guard prospect in the 2018 recruiting class, Darius Garland played just five games before suffering a season-ending meniscus injury in his left knee.
While he’ll certainly need to prove to NBA teams that he’s on track health-wise, the injury has done little to hurt his stock.
ESPN.com called him a “dynamic shooter with deep range” while also lauding his ball-handling ability and basketball IQ. Essentially, everything you look for in an offensive-minded point guard.
While Ja Morant is now the No. 1 point guard in this draft class, Garland looks like a safe bet to be off the board inside the top 10.
Stock: Even
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Grant Halverson/Getty Images
Mock Draft Movement: No. 2 —> No. 7
Height/Weight: 6’6″, 220 lbs
Stats: 18.4 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 0.9 APG, 20.3 PER
Nassir Little was the No. 3 recruit in the 2018 cycle—behind only RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish—according to the final composite rankings from 247Sports.
That should give you an idea of his long-term upside.
However, his immediate impact at North Carolina has not lived up to expectations, as CL Brown of The Athletic explained:
“One NBA scout, speaking on the condition of anonymity, says Little undoubtedly already has NBA athleticism: His 6-foot-6, 220-pound frame is ready-made for the league. The scout just hasn’t seen much else in terms of skills. ‘I like him; I just don’t love him yet,’ the scout says. A second scout who has watched Little play says he looks like a player who has never had coaching until college and made it to this point strictly on his superior athleticism.
“‘If he’s not running up and down the floor, he’s like a deer in headlights,’ the scout says. ‘He’s an NBA athlete. Somebody will take a chance on him, but if I were him, I’d come back another year.'”
His ceiling is so high that he’s still a safe bet to be a top-10 pick, despite coming off the bench and playing just 18.4 minutes per game. His stock has undoubtedly slipped a bit, though.
Stock: Down
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Paul Sancya/Associated Press
Mock Draft Movement: No. 5 —> No. 5
Height/Weight: 6’6″, 215 lbs
Stats: 33.9 MPG, 17.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.3 APG, 20.9 PER
Romeo Langford has all the physical tools to be an impact player in the NBA.
He’s also been one of the most productive freshmen in the country, as he ranks sixth in the Big Ten in scoring (17.0 PPG) while shooting 45.8 percent from the floor.
However, he doesn’t always assert himself, especially considering he’s almost always the best player on the floor.
He’s scored under 15 points six times in his last 11 games, often seeming content just to hover on the perimeter and take outside shots. Not the best approach for a player shooting 27.3 percent from long range.
All of that being said, Langford is still supremely talented and ultra-athletic, and his defensive upside might be his most intriguing trait. His floor is high enough to roll the dice on his ceiling.
Stock: Even
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Rich Barnes/Getty Images
Mock Draft Movement: No. 4 —> No. 4
Height/Weight: 6’8″, 218 lbs
Stats: 29.1 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.8 SPG, 14.7 PER
If Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett are Batman and Robin for Duke on any given night, Cam Reddish is the best Commissioner Gordon in the nation.
While he’s not the primary offensive weapon for the Blue Devils, Reddish is a capable scorer, and he put up a season-high 27 points against North Carolina after Williamson was injured.
Reddish is a smooth player on both ends of the floor, with the length to be a disruptive defender and the ball-handling ability to play on the perimeter.
He’s shooting 33.6 percent from beyond the arc on 214 attempts, so there’s room for improvement in that area. ESPN.com’s Mike Schmitz also points out a willingness to “blend in” and “go through the motions” at times, which will need to change.
Those are all things that can be ironed out, though, and the upside here is considerable.
Stock: Even
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Michael Hickey/Getty Images
Mock Draft Movement: No. 16 —> No. 3
Height/Weight: 6’3″, 175 lbs
Stats: 36.3 MPG, 24.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 10.3 APG, 2.0 SPG, 32.6 PER
No one has done more to boost their stock this season than Ja Morant.
After racking up 12.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game as a freshman, he was viewed as a potential first-round pick heading into the season, but no one had him in the lottery.
Now he’s a legitimate candidate to go in the top three.
He’s become a more efficient player offensively with marked improvements in his field-goal percentage (45.9 to 51.0 percent) and three-point percentage (30.7 to 33.8 percent).
He’s also become a more disruptive defensive player, ranking in the top 20 in the OVC in both steals (54, second) and blocks (21, 14th).
There are some ball-security questions. He leads the OVC and ranks second in the nation with 139 turnovers. Part of that is inevitable with his high usage rate, but it’s still an area where he’ll need to improve.
Despite that, he’s clearly the best point guard in the draft and a potential franchise player if he continues on his current developmental path.
Stock: Up
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Joe Robbins/Getty Images
Mock Draft Movement: No. 1 —> No. 2
Height/Weight: 6’7″, 202 lbs
Stats: 34.4 MPG, 23.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.1 APG, 25.0 PER
RJ Barrett would be the consensus No. 1 overall prospect in a lot of other seasons, and if there are any lingering health concerns surrounding teammate Zion Williamson, he could still go No. 1 overall in the 2019 draft.
He checks all the boxes from a physical standpoint for a wing with good height, length and athleticism.
Despite a high-volume approach offensively, he’s been relatively efficient, shooting 46.2 percent from the floor while taking nearly 19 shots per game, and adding a 32.8 percent clip from beyond the arc.
The biggest “question” might be his ultimate upside compared to other potential early picks.
Jonathan Givony of ESPN.com wrote, “NBA scouts question the extent of his upside compared to most No. 1 pick candidates, comparing him to the likes of DeMar DeRozan and Jimmy Butler.”
Still, he’s done nothing to hurt his stock with an excellent freshman campaign.
Stock: Even
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Chris Seward/Associated Press
Mock Draft Movement: No. 3 —> No. 1
Height/Weight: 6’7″, 285 lbs
Stats: 28.2 MPG, 21.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.2 APG, 2.2 SPG, 1.8 BPG, 42.1 PER
When will Zion Williamson take the floor again for the Duke Blue Devils?
Even if the answer is “never” following a scary knee injury that has left him day-to-day with a Grade 1 sprain, the athletic marvel has already done enough to solidify himself as the No. 1 pick.
The high-flying forward is still lacking a reliable jump shot, connecting on 14 of 48 (29.2 percent) three-point attempts. He’s also shooting just 66.9 percent from the free-throw line, which might be a bigger issue given his penchant for attacking the basket.
Still, there are few players on the planet who can match his raw athleticism.
Aside from his offensive contributions, he’s also been a nightmare on defense, leading the ACC in steals (57) and ranking sixth in blocks (48). And he’s made up for his limited outside game by shooting a ridiculous 75.3 percent from inside the arc.
A strong return from the injury at some point before the season is over would eliminate any remaining doubt as to who goes No. 1 overall.
Stock: Even
All stats courtesy of Sports Reference (unless otherwise noted) and accurate through Feb. 26. Recruiting rankings via 247Sports’ composite.
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