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Imagine being the Denver Nuggets, winning 53 to 56 games and ending a half-decade playoff drought as the No. 2 seed…only to face Gregg Popovich in Round 1.
Picture yourself as the Houston Rockets, navigating injuries galore, overcoming key (but apparently overblown) departures and clawing your way out of an early-season malaise to earn home-court advantage…only to pull the San Antonio Spurs in Round 1.
Put yourself in the shoes of the Oklahoma City Thunder or Portland Trail Blazers. You outperform expectations for much of the year and flirt with a top-three seed…only to meet San Antonio in Round 1.
Slowly, surely and quietly, the Spurs have grabbed hold of fifth place in the West. And with the league’s fourth-easiest schedule through the closing kick, per Tankathon, they might even work their way to No. 4. (Third place is probably out of reach.)
San Antonio’s nine-game winning streak has helped. Then again, seven of those matchups took place at home, and both road victories came against teams well below .500.
Winning in enemy environments remains a concern. The Spurs are near the bottom 10 in net rating away from home with as many losses as the Magic (22), and they’ve dropped their last seven games on the road against opponents above .500. But their recent rise is not a mirage.
For all the worry over their defensive decline, which is real, the Spurs offense has prospered despite an outmoded shot selection. They are seventh in points scored per 100 possessions for the year and are getting season-best stretches from LaMarcus Aldridge and Derrick White—with stellar outings from DeMar DeRozan, Bryn Forbes, Marco Belinelli and Rudy Gay—over their nine-game run of perfection.
Plus, the defense is showing signs of turning a corner. The Spurs are third in points allowed per 100 possessions during the winning streak, which has included clashes with a few top-shelf offenses. They continue to get busted up from three, but no team has done a better job protecting the rim during this stretch, per Cleaning the Glass.
Isolating snapshots of a season is a good way to get burned. Some of the Spurs’ most-used lineups will be no-gos in the playoffs, and they’re relying on more than a few contributors—Forbes, White, Jakob Poeltl—who don’t have extensive postseason resumes.
But give Popovich a protracted look at the same team, and he’ll deal. The Spurs have some small-ball combinations up their sleeves they’ve yet to truly test (Davis Bertans at the 5!), and the emergence of White has armed them with the swing-piece breakout they were hoping to get from Dejounte Murray.
DeRozan’s playoff track record is worth mentioning, but San Antonio has positioned itself to leave a dent in the West’s postseason bracket, so long as the Warriors don’t wait in the first round.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on March 20. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by SLC Dunk’s Andrew Bailey.
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