The vote on Tuesday evening was arguably the most important vote for Brexit since the 2016 referendum on EU membership.
In a last-ditch attempt to allay concerns over the backstop, May traveled to Strasbourg Monday night and said she had won “legally binding” assurances from the EU and called on MPs to back her “improved” deal.
A research team at Citi said that the defeat had dealt a further blow to the chances of an orderly Brexit under May.
“An extension of Article 50 is now almost certain but crucially, Parliament (and the EU) will want to know the purpose. Further negotiations with the EU are unlikely to bring a break-through, so a snap election and further Brexit delays are becoming ever more likely,” the analysts said in a research note.
Samuel Tombs, the chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that his base case scenario remained that MPs would agree on a limited extension of around three months and then will force the prime minister to engage in cross-party talks, leading to an agreement for a Norway-style soft Brexit in the second quarter.
“We still see around a 30 percent chance of a second referendum, either called by Mrs. May or backed by a majority of MPs to break the deadlock, but believe the chances of another election remain slim,” he said in a research note.
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