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Two years ago, Jarrett Culver was a 3-star recruit headed to Texas Tech. Last season, he was a role player. On Monday night, he’ll be the main draw for hungry NBA lottery teams scouting the national championship game.
He came alive late Saturday night in the Final Four, burying Michigan State with a game-sealing pull-up that highlighted his evolution from spot-up shooter to lead scorer.
Culver’s transformation has helped elevate both the Red Raiders and his personal draft stock. Against Virginia, he’ll be competing for a title and interest from NBA teams deciding whether to insert him into the same tier as projected top picks (excluding Zion Williamson) RJ Barrett and Ja Morant.
Scouts couldn’t have picked a better opponent for Culver from an evaluation-setting standpoint. De’Andre Hunter is as close to an NBA wing defender as there is in the country, and Ty Jerome, another potential first-rounder, brings a different style of defensive toughness and pressure.
It’s a perfect opportunity for Culver to replace memories from Saturday’s 3-of-12 showing with flashes of takeover scoring against future pros.
If there is hesitation from scouts about his NBA upside, it’s stemming from a lack of explosion. That raises questions about his potential to create separation in the pros. Scoring on Hunter and Jerome could help diminish those concerns, though Culver has already brought it against top competition this season, totaling 25 points against Duke, 26 against Kansas and 31 against Iowa State.
Improvement working off the dribble has been the biggest key for the 6’6″ shooting guard, who last year had just 51 points on a combined 86 pick-and-roll and isolation possessions, per Synergy Sports. This season, he’s generated 252 points on 287 combined possessions while nearly doubling his assist percentage to 25.9 from 13.7, per Sports Reference.
Though not notably quick or athletic, he’s done a better job getting to his spots off more decisive ball-handling moves, change of speed/direction and long, effective strides. It’s taken his scoring, playmaking and team to new heights.
His pull-up has also become a promising weapon, after he made just seven all of last season. He’s 48-of-138 this year, a promising development in spite of the 34.8 percent conversion mark.
Scouts must decide how much stock to put into his slower release and occasionally stiff shooting mechanics. His makes look good, given his high-arcing shot. But he’s only shooting 31.6 percent from three and 70.3 percent from the free-throw line, unsettling numbers for a sophomore 2-guard—particularly for teams skeptical about his chances of becoming a primary initiator on offense in the NBA.
The 20-year-old is still exceptionally well-rounded, between his physical tools, attacking, shot-making, passing and defense. And it’s helped create a perception that Culver is low-risk and easy to fit.
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Heading into Monday, Williamson, Morant and Barrett are the top three prospects for most scouts. Many have Culver in that next group, if not right at the top of it.
Another flat effort on Monday night could end his rise and solidify Morant and Barrett as the second and third picks. It’s difficult to say how far he can move the needle, even with a monster game.
Regardless, he’s done enough to at least warrant consideration as the draft’s next-best option. And the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks (two top-10 picks) and New Orleans Pelicans—franchises projected to pick in the top seven—each have wing needs.
Those specific teams and others will be looking closely at Culver under the NBA scouting lens during their final chance to evaluate live-game action. Given all the hype he’s built, he’ll likely be advised to skip scrimmaging at the NBA combine and avoid group workouts with other prospects.
General managers with valuable top-10 picks will be asking whether Culver is a future lead scorer and playmaker—the type coaches can feature in fourth quarters and run plays for at the end of clocks. Or is he built to complement those lead players, deeming him slightly less attractive as a high selection.
Culver will ultimately have one last shot to strengthen his case against Virginia and cap off one of the year’s most impactful breakouts.
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